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How We Calculate the Cost of the Iran War
This page explains our methodology for estimating the real-time cost of US military operations in Iran (Operation Epic Fury).
Data Sources
- Pentagon Congressional Briefing (March 11, 2026): The Department of Defense briefed the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense that the first 6 days cost $11.3 billion.
- CSIS Analysis (March 2026): Estimated cumulative costs of $16.5 billion by day 12.
- CSIS Initial Cost Estimate: $3.7 billion for the first 100 hours.
- Penn Wharton Budget Model: Projects total direct budgetary impact of $40-95 billion, with broader economic impact up to $210 billion.
- Congressional Budget Office: Supplementary cost estimates.
Calculation Model
We use a piecewise linear interpolation model:
| Phase | Period | Cumulative Cost | Daily Rate | Per Second |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phase 1: Initial Strikes | Feb 28 – Mar 6 | $0 → $11.3B | ~$1.88B/day | ~$21,793/sec |
| Phase 2: Continued Ops | Mar 6 – Mar 12 | $11.3B → $16.5B | ~$867M/day | ~$10,031/sec |
| Phase 3: Sustained Ops | Mar 12+ onward | $16.5B + ongoing | ~$200M/day | ~$2,315/sec |
Technical Implementation
The counter uses Date.now() on every animation frame for zero-drift, tab-safe operation.
What's Included
Direct military operational costs: munitions, personnel (~50,000 troops), naval forces, aircraft operations, fuel, logistics, C4ISR/cyber/space, overhead.
What's NOT Included
Long-term veteran healthcare, interest on war-related debt, intelligence operations, economic disruption, allied contributions, diplomatic/humanitarian costs.
Per-Capita Calculations
- Per US Taxpayer: Total cost / ~150 million individual tax returns (IRS).
- Per US Household: Total cost / ~131 million US households (Census).
Limitations
- All figures are estimates based on the best available public data.
- The sustained daily rate of $200M/day is an approximation.
- Historical war cost comparisons are inflation-adjusted using CPI calculators.
- Our model will be updated as new official data becomes available.
Update Log
- March 2026: Initial model launched with Pentagon and CSIS anchor points.